Democrats hold a 4-pt. advantage among likely midterm voters, while President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 39%, according to the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll released by Stagwell (NASDAQ:STGW). The survey also found that 64% of voters believe the economy is on the wrong track, a 7-pt. increase from September.
#Democrats Lead in Midterm Voting Preferences
The poll placed the general-voter midterms horserace at 52-48 and reported a 4-pt. Democratic lead among likely midterm voters. Among Independents, 56% leaned Democrat.
Overall, 78% of voters said they would definitely or probably vote in the upcoming midterm elections. The poll found that 59% had settled on their choice, while 23% were leaning toward candidates but could still change their minds. A further 12% remained undecided, including 19% of Independents.
Among voters planning to support Republicans, 38% said Trump was not a factor in their decision, 36% said their vote reflected support for Trump and 19% said they were voting for the Republican Party despite him. Separately, 39% of Republican and Independent voters said Trump's endorsement made them more likely to support a Republican candidate, including 56% of Republican voters.
#Trump Approval and Economic Concerns
Trump's overall approval rating was 39%, a three-point drop from the previous month. His highest job-approval ratings were 44% on immigration and fighting crime in America's cities. His lowest ratings were 33% on inflation and 34% on tariffs and trade policy and the economy.
The survey found that 59% of voters believed the country was on the wrong track, while 64% said the economy was on the wrong track. Another 57% described the economy as weak. Inflation remained the top personal concern.
Three in five voters held Trump responsible for the economy's direction. In addition, 58% attributed inflation over the last few years to the Trump administration and its tariffs, 60% said the current economic situation was due to Trump policies and 54% said the economy was worse than it had been under Biden.
Approval of the Republican Party stood at 41%, described in the poll as a five-year low. Democratic Party approval was 45%, while Congressional approval was 32%.
#Voters Give Democrats an Edge on Economic Issues
A 53% majority said they trusted Democrats in Congress more than Trump and Republicans in Congress to deal with the economy. Meanwhile, 55% trusted Democrats more than Republicans to lower the cost of living.
Voters identified ending Trump's tariffs, regulating prices and price increases, and reducing government spending as the leading ways to reduce inflation. Majorities also supported decreasing taxes now at 66%, decreasing government spending at 71% and decreasing interest rates at 64%.
The poll found majority support for 11 out of 14 Trump policy positions. The most supported included lowering prescription drug prices at 84%, easing fuel taxes at 77% and deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes at 76%. Support was lower for placing a 15% tariff on imports from all countries at 40%, giving immigration officers authority to deny green cards at 44% and eliminating mail-in voting at 45%.
#Views on the Supreme Court and Election Administration
Some 69% of voters said that parties unhappy with Supreme Court decisions should wait until they can appoint justices rather than pack the court. A separate 52% said judgeship appointments should remain subject to the 50-vote threshold instead of being raised to 60 votes.
The poll found that 70% were confident the midterms would be conducted fairly and accurately. However, 54% believed Trump would challenge the results if Republicans lost. A total of 55% expected most candidates and political parties to accept the results even if they were defeated.
Fifty-six percent said a Democratic victory in at least one chamber of Congress would be the better outcome for the country, while 59% said they trusted political polls to accurately reflect voters' views.
#AI Use and Views of the Justice Department
One-quarter of voters said they had used an AI chatbot to research or obtain information about the midterms. The figure rose to 48% among voters aged 18-24 and 43% among those aged 25-34. Polling and candidate information each accounted for 39% of the queries among those who had used AI, followed by voting and registration information at 38%.
Sixty-four percent of voters said the Justice Department was influenced by political considerations rather than investigating politicians fairly and independently. The survey also found that 59% had heard about the federal investigation into Congresswoman Ilhan Omar over allegations of immigration fraud, while 53% considered the allegations credible and 59% supported the investigation.
#Foreign Policy Views
On the U.S.-Iran conflict, 68% supported resuming force, sanctions and blockades if Iran did not give up control of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, 58% disapproved of Trump's handling of the conflict, and 48% said his approach made them more likely to vote Democrat in the midterms.
Regarding Russia and Ukraine, 64% supported continued U.S. weaponry for Ukraine and further sanctions on Russia. Sixty-one percent opposed the U.S. buying oil and diesel fuel from Russia while the war continued, while 54% supported Trump's deal to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel fuel.
The poll also found that 71% supported Israel over Hamas and 72% said Hezbollah should be required to disarm as part of a long-term peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
#Survey Details
The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll was conducted online within the United States on October 24-26, 2026, among 2,700 registered voters. The survey was conducted by The Harris Poll and HarrisX as part of a monthly collaboration with the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard.
#Key Takeaways
- Democrats held a 4-pt. lead among likely midterm voters, with 56% of Independents leaning Democrat.
- President Donald Trump's approval rating was 39%, down three points from last month.
- Sixty-four percent of voters said the economy was on the wrong track, a 7-pt. increase from September.
- Republican Party approval fell to 41%, while Democratic Party approval was 45%.
- Twenty-five percent of voters said they had used an AI chatbot for midterm information.
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