CanCambria Energy Corp. has announced an updated independent contingent resource evaluation for its deep gas project in southern Hungary. The assessment covers the company’s 100% WI BA-IX Mining Plot and Kiskunhalas Concession Area and places the estimated NPV10 of its base-case, risked 2C Development Pending contingent resource at US$2.04 billion.
#Updated evaluation and valuation
The Resources Report was prepared by Chapman Hydrogen and Petroleum Engineering Ltd (CHPE), an independent qualified reserves evaluator. It is dated July 1, 2026, and is effective as of June 30th, 2026.
Using revised pricing assumptions, the estimated NPV10 increased by 16%, from $1.762 billion to $2.04 billion. The source also states that the increase was US$278 million for the risked 2C Development Pending sub-class.
The revised assessment uses a long-term European natural gas price assumption of US$12.00/MMBtu (TTF1), compared with the previous US$10.00/MMBtu (TTF1) base-case assumption. The evaluation continues to use a Brent crude oil price assumption of US$65.00 per barrel.
#Resource volumes remain unchanged
CHPE’s best estimate for the 2C Development Pending sub-class remains 571.9 Bcf of natural gas and 59.6 MMbbl of condensate on a net risked recoverable basis.
Across all classes, the combined best estimate 2C contingent resources net to CanCambria are stated as 1.1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 116.6 million barrels of condensate.
#Development model
The development model used in the evaluation assumes first gas production commencing in mid-2027. It also models full-field development increasing in 2028 to six wells per year, with an inventory of 112 wells.
These dates and development activities are model assumptions rather than completed project milestones. CanCambria states that there can be no certainty that the project will be developed on the timelines outlined in the Resources Report.
#European gas price context
The revised valuation reflects CHPE’s higher long-term gas price assumption. The company attributes the updated market context to macro-geopolitical uncertainty, tightening supply-side fundamentals and concerns about European energy security.
The source states that European natural gas day-ahead spot prices are currently US$18.50/MMBtu (TTF1), while both the six-month trailing average and the trailing 5-year average exceed US$15.00/MMBtu. CHPE’s US$12.00/MMBtu (TTF1) assumption is described as approximately 40% below current spot prices.
The TTF prices used in the evaluation are converted from EUR/MWh to US$/MMBtu using the applicable EUR/USD exchange rate and a conversion factor of 1 MWh = 3.412 MMBtu.
#Contingent resource conditions
CHPE assigned the contingent resource volumes an 80% chance of development. The resources remain contingent pending additional delineation wells confirming reservoir quality and continuity, further refinement of the commercial development plan, regulatory approval for full-field development, corporate commitment to proceed and financing for commercial development.
Contingencies can also involve economic, legal, environmental, political and regulatory matters or a lack of markets. CanCambria states that there is uncertainty over whether any portion of the reported contingent resources will be commercially viable to produce, and that estimated resources may not be recovered.
The NPV10 estimates are based on estimated future operating and capital costs and CHPE’s forecast prices as of July 1, 2026. They assume development of the relevant properties and do not represent the fair market value of the resources.
#Forward-looking risks and disclosure
CanCambria cautions that the Resources Report estimates, the potential for first gas production commencing in 2027 and the advancement of the Kiskunhalas Project may not be realised as contemplated, or at all. The company also identifies risks involving exploration plans, business plans, expectations, capital costs and objectives, as well as other known and unknown uncertainties beyond its control.
The company states that the updated resources evaluation is available through SEDAR+. It also says that full disclosure of its resources will be included in its Form 51-101F1 for the year ended December 31, 2026, which is to be filed on SEDAR+.
#Key Takeaways
- CanCambria Energy announced an updated independent contingent resource evaluation for its deep gas project in southern Hungary.
- The estimated NPV10 for the base-case, risked 2C Development Pending contingent resource increased by 16% to US$2.04 billion.
- The 2C Development Pending best estimate remains 571.9 Bcf of natural gas and 59.6 MMbbl of condensate, net risked recoverable.
- The development model uses first gas production commencing in mid-2027 and full-field development increasing in 2028 to six wells per year.
- The resources remain subject to development, regulatory, financing and commercial conditions, and their recovery is not guaranteed.
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